A fall in production from the world's top producers, combined with cocoa grindings increasing in line with the average annual global growth rate of 2.5 percent, was expected to see 2012/13 supply and demand closely matched. Dry weather in parts of West Africa during development of the coming main crop, plus potential for the weather phenomenon El Nino to strike later this year, could worsen the predicted global deficit, the survey showed.
El Nino - the warming of the Pacific Ocean leading to a shift in weather patterns including lower rainfall in West Africa - caused a drop of 2.4 percent in world cocoa output on average when it occurred over the last 60 years, according to International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) data. "My expectation is that an El Nino weather year will create havoc with future crops," said Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors.
Respondents predicted the world's top producer Ivory Coast's 2012/13 cocoa production would fall to 1.35 million tonnes, compared with the ICCO's output figure of 1.41 million tonnes for the previous year. Ghana, the second largest producer, was also expected to see a 40,000-tonne fall in production on the year to 850,000 tonnes in 2012/13.
"We've had a series of exceptionally good (pod) sets during crop development in Ivory Coast and Ghana but the earlier ones have failed to survive," said Jonathan Parkman, joint head of agriculture at broker Marex Spectron.